Politics prediction markets: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Elections, nominations, confirmations and legislation — the deepest markets on both exchanges and the most frequent cross-venue disagreements. We track 72 politics questions listed on both exchanges (72 live now); 37 have disagreed by more than the fees at least once.
Most-disagreed politics markets
| Market | Fee-clearing detections | Largest net edge | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Ron DeSantis | 37,680 | 2.22% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump Jr. | 35,557 | 2.57% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Wes Moore | 35,041 | 2.91% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18,944 | 3.77% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2026 US midterm elections — House control | 17,464 | 1.71% | Sep 8, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Andy Beshear | 14,598 | 0.98% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Mark Kelly | 12,393 | 2.65% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee J.B. Pritzker | 11,562 | 1.20% | Aug 28, 2026 |
Every shared politics market
| Market | Outcome | Match | Detections | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Ron DeSantis | Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 37,680 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump Jr. | Donald Trump Jr. wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 35,557 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Wes Moore | Wes Moore wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 35,041 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential no… | AI-matched · 98% | 18,944 | live |
| 2026 US midterm elections — House control | Republican Party controls the House | human-reviewed | 17,464 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Andy Beshear | Andy Beshear wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 14,598 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Mark Kelly | Mark Kelly wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 12,393 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee J.B. Pritzker | J.B. Pritzker wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 11,562 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris | Kamala Harris wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 9,489 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Dwayne Johnson | Dwayne Johnson wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 9,150 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Rahm Emanuel | Rahm Emanuel wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 8,860 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Michelle Obama | Michelle Obama wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 7,093 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee J.D. Vance | J.D. Vance wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 5,272 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Josh Hawley | Josh Hawley wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 4,638 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Jon Ossoff | Jon Ossoff wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 4,407 | live |
| Will President Trump be impeached during his term? Before Jan 20, 2029 | Trump is impeached by the US House before Jan 20, 2029, while in office | AI-matched · 98% | 2,905 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Elon Musk | Elon Musk wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 2,627 | live |
| 2026 US midterm elections — Senate control | Republican Party controls the Senate | human-reviewed | 2,605 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Brian Kemp | Brian Kemp wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 2,581 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Thomas Massie | Thomas Massie wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 2,523 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee James Talarico | James Talarico wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 1,743 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Jon Stewart | Jon Stewart wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 1,705 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Tucker Carlson | Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 1,552 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Marco Rubio | Marco Rubio wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 1,519 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Vivek Ramaswamy | Vivek Ramaswamy wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 1,516 | live |
| Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader? Before Jan 1, 2027 | Nigel Farage ceases to be Reform UK leader before Jan 1, 2027 (by Dec 31, 202… | AI-matched · 98% | 1,213 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Pete Hegseth | Pete Hegseth wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 947 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Chris Murphy | Chris Murphy wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 924 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Mark Cuban | Mark Cuban wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 716 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Ted Cruz | Ted Cruz wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 648 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Glenn Youngkin | Glenn Youngkin wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 464 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Tulsi Gabbard | Tulsi Gabbard wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination fo… | AI-matched · 98% | 437 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Ivanka Trump | Ivanka Trump wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 353 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Pete Buttigieg | Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 197 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump | Donald Trump wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 118 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Sarah Huckabee Sanders | Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomi… | AI-matched · 98% | 70 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Raphael Warnock | Warnock wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 35 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Andrew Yang | Andrew Yang wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama | Barack Obama wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Beto O'Rourke | Beto O'Rourke wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Bernie Sanders | Bernie Sanders wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Cory Booker | Cory Booker wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Elissa Slotkin | Elissa Slotkin wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Gavin Newsom | Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Graham Platner | Graham Platner wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Gina Raimondo | Gina Raimondo wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Gretchen Whitmer | Gretchen Whitmer wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 100% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Hunter Biden | Hunter Biden wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 100% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton | Hillary Clinton wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Jasmine Crockett | Jasmine Crockett wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee John Fetterman | John Fetterman wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Jared Polis | Jared Polis wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Josh Shapiro | Josh Shapiro wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Liz Cheney | Liz Cheney wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee LeBron James | LeBron James wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Phil Murphy | Phil Murphy wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Roy Cooper | Roy Cooper wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 100% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Ruben Gallego | Ruben Gallego wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Ro Khanna | Ro Khanna wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Stephen A. Smith | Stephen A. Smith wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Tim Walz | Tim Walz wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Zohran Mamdani | Zohran Mamdani wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Byron Donalds | Byron Donalds wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Candace Owens | Candace Owens wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Elise Stefanik | Elise Stefanik wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Greg Abbott | Greg Abbott wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee John Thune | John Thune wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Matt Gaetz | Matt Gaetz wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Nikki Haley | Nikki Haley wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | RFK Jr. wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Rand Paul | Rand Paul wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Tom Cotton | Tom Cotton wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
Frequently asked questions
Do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on politics markets?
Yes. Of the 72 politics questions we track on both exchanges, 37 have shown at least one window where buying the cheaper side on each venue cost less than $1 after both fees, with net edges up to 2.22%.
What fees apply?
Kalshi charges takers 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract. Polymarket's politics rate is about 4% on the same curve; makers pay nothing on either.
Do both contracts resolve identically?
Each pair was confirmed as the same question by an automated reviewer with a visible confidence score, but resolution rules can differ in edge cases. Read both rule sets before treating a gap as risk-free.
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