Kalshi vs Polymarket, market by market
Most comparisons of the two exchanges are about apps and deposit methods. This one is about prices. We track 140 questions listed on both venues (140 with live books right now), record both order books continuously, and count every moment the gap between them was wider than the fees. 97 of the pairs have produced at least one such window. Click any market for both venues' price history and the episode log.
Shared markets tracked
140
140 live now
Pairs that disagreed
97
beyond fees, at least once
Kalshi taker fee
7%
× p × (1 − p)
Polymarket taker fee
4–7%
by category, × p × (1 − p)
Where the two exchanges disagreed most
| Market | Category | Fee-clearing detections | Largest net edge | First | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Ron DeSantis | politics | 37,680 | 2.22% | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump Jr. | politics | 35,557 | 2.57% | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Wes Moore | politics | 35,041 | 2.91% | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | politics | 18,944 | 3.77% | Aug 12, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2026 US midterm elections — House control | politics | 17,464 | 1.71% | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Andy Beshear | politics | 14,598 | 0.98% | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Mark Kelly | politics | 12,393 | 2.65% | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 9, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee J.B. Pritzker | politics | 11,562 | 1.20% | Aug 9, 2026 | Aug 28, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris | politics | 9,489 | 1.04% | Aug 9, 2026 | Aug 31, 2026 |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Dwayne Johnson | politics | 9,150 | 0.75% | Aug 9, 2026 | Sep 8, 2026 |
A detection is one scan where buying the cheaper side on each venue cost less than $1 after both fees, at a size the books could fill. Long-dated markets (2028 nominees, for instance) can stay mispriced for days because the capital is locked until resolution — see annualized edge.
Every shared market
politics: 72 · other: 63 · economy: 4 · culture: 1. Live pairs first.
| Market | Outcome | Category | Match | Detections | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Ron DeSantis | Ron DeSantis wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 37,680 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump Jr. | Donald Trump Jr. wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 35,557 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Wes Moore | Wes Moore wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 35,041 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 18,944 | live |
| 2026 US midterm elections — House control | Republican Party controls the House | politics | human-reviewed | 17,464 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Andy Beshear | Andy Beshear wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 14,598 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Mark Kelly | Mark Kelly wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 12,393 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee J.B. Pritzker | J.B. Pritzker wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 11,562 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris | Kamala Harris wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 9,489 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Dwayne Johnson | Dwayne Johnson wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 9,150 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Rahm Emanuel | Rahm Emanuel wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 8,860 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Michelle Obama | Michelle Obama wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 7,093 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee J.D. Vance | J.D. Vance wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 5,272 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Josh Hawley | Josh Hawley wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 4,638 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Jon Ossoff | Jon Ossoff wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 4,407 | live |
| Fed decision at the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting | No change to the target federal funds rate | economy | human-reviewed | 3,201 | live |
| Will President Trump be impeached during his term? Before Jan 20, 2029 | Trump is impeached by the US House before Jan 20, 2029, while in office | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 2,905 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Elon Musk | Elon Musk wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 2,627 | live |
| 2026 US midterm elections — Senate control | Republican Party controls the Senate | politics | human-reviewed | 2,605 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Brian Kemp | Brian Kemp wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 2,581 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Thomas Massie | Thomas Massie wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 2,523 | live |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City before October? Yes | Benjamin Netanyahu physically visits New York City before October 1, 2026 | other | AI-matched · 98% | 1,816 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee James Talarico | James Talarico wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 1,743 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Jon Stewart | Jon Stewart wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 1,705 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Tucker Carlson | Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 1,552 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Marco Rubio | Marco Rubio wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 1,519 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Vivek Ramaswamy | Vivek Ramaswamy wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 1,516 | live |
| Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader? Before Jan 1, 2027 | Nigel Farage ceases to be Reform UK leader before Jan 1, 2027 (by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 P… | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 1,213 | live |
| Middleweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? Nassourdine Imavov | Nassourdine Imavov is the official UFC Middleweight Champion at 12:00 PM ET on December… | other | AI-matched · 100% | 1,104 | live |
| Coyote vs. Acme · Rotten Tomatoes score Above 95 | Coyote vs. Acme has a Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score of at least 96 at 10:00 AM ET o… | culture | AI-matched · 100% | 957 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Pete Hegseth | Pete Hegseth wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 947 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Chris Murphy | Chris Murphy wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 924 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Mark Cuban | Mark Cuban wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 716 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Ted Cruz | Ted Cruz wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 648 | live |
| Kiwoom Heroes vs Lotte Giants Lotte Giants | Lotte Giants win the game | other | AI-matched · 98% | 599 | live |
| Kiwoom Heroes vs Lotte Giants Kiwoom Heroes | Kiwoom Heroes win the scheduled game vs Lotte Giants | other | AI-matched · 98% | 586 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Glenn Youngkin | Glenn Youngkin wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 464 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Tulsi Gabbard | Tulsi Gabbard wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination for the Repu… | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 437 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Nippon Ham Fighters win the specified NPB game | other | AI-matched · 98% | 430 | live |
| Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs Hanshin Tigers Hanshin Tigers | Hanshin Tigers win the specified NPB game | other | AI-matched · 98% | 387 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Ivanka Trump | Ivanka Trump wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 353 | live |
| Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in September Maintain current rate | No change to the Bank of Brazil's primary policy rate (Selic target) at the September 2… | economy | AI-matched · 98% | 335 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Pete Buttigieg | Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 197 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Fukuoka Hawks | Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks win the specified NPB game | other | AI-matched · 98% | 184 | live |
| Fed decision at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting | No change to the target federal funds rate | economy | human-reviewed | 181 | live |
| Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs Hanshin Tigers Tokyo Yakult Swallows | Tokyo Yakult Swallows win the specified NPB game | other | AI-matched · 98% | 145 | live |
| Los Angeles D vs Colorado: First 5 Spread Colorado -1.5 first 5 innings | Colorado Rockies lead by 2+ runs after 5 innings | other | AI-matched · 98% | 144 | live |
| Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs Hanshin Tigers Hanshin Tigers | Hanshin Tigers win the specified NPB game | other | AI-matched · 98% | 134 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Donald J. Trump | Donald Trump wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 118 | live |
| SSG Landers vs Samsung Lions Samsung Lions | Samsung Lions win the game | other | AI-matched · 98% | 99 | live |
| Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters vs Fukuoka Hawks Fukuoka Hawks | Fukuoka Hawks win the NPB game scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET | other | AI-matched · 95% | 95 | live |
| Saitama Seibu Lions vs Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles | Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win the NPB game originally scheduled for August 21, 2026 … | other | AI-matched · 95% | 74 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Sarah Huckabee Sanders | Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 70 | live |
| Los Angeles D vs Colorado: First 5 Spread Colorado -1.5 first 5 innings | Colorado Rockies lead by 2+ runs after 5 innings | other | AI-matched · 98% | 63 | live |
| SSG Landers vs Samsung Lions SSG Landers | SSG Landers win the game | other | AI-matched · 98% | 56 | live |
| Saitama Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes Saitama Seibu Lions | Saitama Seibu Lions win the NPB game scheduled for September 8, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET | other | AI-matched · 95% | 52 | live |
| Saitama Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes Orix Buffaloes | Orix Buffaloes win the NPB game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 43 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Nippon Ham Fighters win the game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 40 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Raphael Warnock | Warnock wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 35 | live |
| Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues Anthony Hernandez | Anthony Hernandez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Gregory Rodrigues | other | AI-matched · 98% | 33 | live |
| Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues | Gregory Rodrigues is officially declared the winner of the Hernandez vs Rodrigues fight | other | AI-matched · 98% | 32 | live |
| Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles vs Orix Buffaloes Orix Buffaloes | Orix Buffaloes win the NPB game scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET | other | AI-matched · 95% | 28 | live |
| Los Angeles A vs Houston: First 5 Spread Los Angeles A -1.5 first 5 innings | Los Angeles Angels lead by 2+ runs after 5 innings | other | AI-matched · 98% | 26 | live |
| Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles vs Orix Buffaloes Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles | Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win the NPB game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 26 | live |
| Fight Night: Young vs Dorsainvil Gauge Young | Gauge Young wins the fight | other | AI-matched · 98% | 25 | live |
| Yomiuri Giants vs Tokyo Yakult Swallows Yomiuri Giants | Yomiuri Giants win the NPB game originally scheduled for August 25, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET | other | AI-matched · 95% | 20 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Fukuoka Hawks | Fukuoka Hawks win the specified NPB game | other | AI-matched · 100% | 19 | live |
| Dinamo Zagreb vs Viking: Spread Dinamo Zagreb wins by more than 1.5 goals | Dinamo Zagreb wins by more than 1.5 goals (i.e., by 2 or more goals) after 90 minutes p… | other | AI-matched · 98% | 18 | live |
| Orix Buffaloes vs Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles | Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win the NPB game originally scheduled for Sep 1, 2026 at 5… | other | AI-matched · 95% | 17 | live |
| Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs Chunichi Dragons Tokyo Yakult Swallows | Tokyo Yakult Swallows win the NPB game originally scheduled for August 21, 2026 at 5:00… | other | AI-matched · 95% | 16 | live |
| Fight Night: Padilla vs Haqparast Nasrat Haqparast | Nasrat Haqparast wins the fight | other | AI-matched · 98% | 16 | live |
| Casa Pia vs SL Benfica: BTTS Both Teams To Score | Both Casa Pia and SL Benfica score at least one goal in regulation time (90 minutes plu… | other | AI-matched · 98% | 15 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Nippon Ham Fighters win the scheduled game vs Fukuoka Hawks | other | AI-matched · 100% | 15 | live |
| Orix Buffaloes vs Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles Orix Buffaloes | Orix Buffaloes win the NPB game originally scheduled for Sep 1, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET | other | AI-matched · 95% | 15 | live |
| Fight Night: Padilla vs Haqparast Christopher Padilla | Chris Padilla is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nasrat Haqparast | other | AI-matched · 98% | 15 | live |
| Saitama Seibu Lions vs Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles Saitama Seibu Lions | Saitama Seibu Lions win the NPB game originally scheduled for August 22, 2026 at 5:00 A… | other | AI-matched · 95% | 14 | live |
| Orix Buffaloes vs Saitama Seibu Lions Saitama Seibu Lions | Saitama Seibu Lions win the NPB game originally scheduled for August 20, 2026 at 5:00 A… | other | AI-matched · 95% | 13 | live |
| St. Louis vs Cincinnati: Game 2 First Inning Run Yes | At least one run is scored in the first inning of the St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnat… | other | AI-matched · 98% | 11 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Chiba Lotte Marines Chiba Lotte Marines | Chiba Lotte Marines win the NPB game originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 5:00 A… | other | AI-matched · 95% | 11 | live |
| Hanshin Tigers vs Tokyo Yakult Swallows Hanshin Tigers | Hanshin Tigers win the NPB game originally scheduled for Sep 1, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET | other | AI-matched · 95% | 10 | live |
| Internacional vs Remo: BTTS Both Teams To Score | Both Internacional and Remo each score at least one goal in regulation time (90 minutes… | other | AI-matched · 98% | 8 | live |
| Hanshin Tigers vs Tokyo Yakult Swallows Tokyo Yakult Swallows | Tokyo Yakult Swallows win the originally scheduled NPB game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 7 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Chiba Lotte Marines Chiba Lotte Marines | Chiba Lotte Marines win the NPB game originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 5:00 A… | other | AI-matched · 95% | 6 | live |
| Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles vs Orix Buffaloes Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles | Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win the NPB game originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 … | other | AI-matched · 95% | 6 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Chiba Lotte Marines Fukuoka Hawks | Fukuoka Hawks win the NPB game originally scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET | other | AI-matched · 95% | 5 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Nippon Ham Fighters win the game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 5 | live |
| Pachuca vs Puebla: BTTS Both Teams To Score | Both Pachuca and Puebla score at least one goal in regulation (90 minutes plus stoppage… | other | AI-matched · 98% | 4 | live |
| Deportivo De La Coruna vs Elche: BTTS Both Teams To Score | Both Deportivo De La Coruna and Elche score at least one goal in regulation (90 minutes… | other | AI-matched · 98% | 3 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Fukuoka Hawks | Fukuoka Hawks win the NPB game originally scheduled for Sep 1, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET | other | AI-matched · 95% | 3 | live |
| Fight Night: Emmers vs Douglas Lerryan Douglas | Lerryan Douglas is officially declared the winner of the Emmers vs Douglas fight | other | AI-matched · 98% | 3 | live |
| Fight Night: Emmers vs Douglas Jamall Emmers | Jamall Emmers wins the fight | other | AI-matched · 98% | 3 | live |
| Fight Night: Judice vs Chaves Jeisla Chaves | Jeisla Chaves wins the Judice vs Chaves fight | other | AI-matched · 98% | 2 | live |
| Fight Night: Judice vs Chaves Carli Judice | Carli Judice is officially declared the winner of the Judice vs Chaves fight | other | AI-matched · 100% | 2 | live |
| Chiba Lotte Marines vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Nippon Ham Fighters win the game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 1 | live |
| Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles vs Saitama Seibu Lions Saitama Seibu Lions | Saitama Seibu Lions win the originally scheduled NPB game on August 28, 2026 | other | AI-matched · 95% | 1 | live |
| Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs Gaziev Shamil Gaziev | Shamil Gaziev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kennedy Nzechukwu | other | AI-matched · 98% | 1 | live |
| Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs Gaziev Kennedy Nzechukwu | Kennedy Nzechukwu is officially declared the winner of the fight against Shamil Gaziev | other | AI-matched · 95% | 1 | live |
| Fed decision at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting | No change to the target federal funds rate | economy | human-reviewed | 0 | live |
| Cremonese vs Sampdoria: Regulation Time BTTS Reg Time: Both Teams To Score | Both Cremonese and Sampdoria score at least one goal in regulation time (90 minutes plu… | other | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters vs Chiba Lotte Marines Chiba Lotte Marines | Chiba Lotte Marines win the originally scheduled NPB game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 0 | live |
| Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters vs Chiba Lotte Marines Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Nippon Ham Fighters win the game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 0 | live |
| Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters vs Chiba Lotte Marines Chiba Lotte Marines | Chiba Lotte Marines win the originally scheduled NPB game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 0 | live |
| Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters vs Chiba Lotte Marines Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters | Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters win the game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 0 | live |
| Fukuoka Hawks vs Chiba Lotte Marines Fukuoka Hawks | Fukuoka Hawks win the originally scheduled NPB game | other | AI-matched · 95% | 0 | live |
| Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters vs Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles | Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles win the NPB game originally scheduled for Sep 6, 2026 at 3… | other | AI-matched · 95% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Andrew Yang | Andrew Yang wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama | Barack Obama wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Beto O'Rourke | Beto O'Rourke wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Bernie Sanders | Bernie Sanders wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Cory Booker | Cory Booker wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Elissa Slotkin | Elissa Slotkin wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Gavin Newsom | Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Graham Platner | Graham Platner wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Gina Raimondo | Gina Raimondo wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Gretchen Whitmer | Gretchen Whitmer wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 100% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Hunter Biden | Hunter Biden wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 100% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton | Hillary Clinton wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Jasmine Crockett | Jasmine Crockett wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee John Fetterman | John Fetterman wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Jared Polis | Jared Polis wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Josh Shapiro | Josh Shapiro wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Liz Cheney | Liz Cheney wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee LeBron James | LeBron James wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Phil Murphy | Phil Murphy wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Roy Cooper | Roy Cooper wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 100% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Ruben Gallego | Ruben Gallego wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Ro Khanna | Ro Khanna wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Stephen A. Smith | Stephen A. Smith wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Tim Walz | Tim Walz wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Democratic presidential nominee Zohran Mamdani | Zohran Mamdani wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Byron Donalds | Byron Donalds wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Candace Owens | Candace Owens wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Elise Stefanik | Elise Stefanik wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Greg Abbott | Greg Abbott wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee John Thune | John Thune wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Matt Gaetz | Matt Gaetz wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Nikki Haley | Nikki Haley wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | RFK Jr. wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Rand Paul | Rand Paul wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
| 2028 Republican presidential nominee Tom Cotton | Tom Cotton wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination | politics | AI-matched · 98% | 0 | live |
Fees, side by side
Kalshi
Taker: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the cent, on most series. Maker: $0 on most series. Peak fee ≈ 1.75¢ per contract at 50¢; ≈ 0.63¢ at 10¢. Calculator →
Polymarket
Taker: size × category rate × price × (1 − price) — about 4% politics/finance, 5% sports and most categories, 7% crypto. Maker: $0, with rebates funded by taker fees. Calculator →
Frequently asked questions
Do Kalshi and Polymarket price the same events differently?
Yes, routinely. They have different traders, different liquidity and different fee schedules, so the same binary question often trades a few cents apart. The table on this page shows every pair we track with both venues' latest quotes and how many times the gap exceeded fees.
Which is cheaper to trade, Kalshi or Polymarket?
Both charge takers on the curve price × (1 − price). Kalshi's rate is 7% on most series (max ≈1.75¢ per contract at 50¢); Polymarket's depends on category — roughly 4% for politics and finance, 5% for sports and most others, 7% for crypto — and makers pay nothing on either. Which is cheaper for a given trade depends on the category and on the price you are trading at; the fee calculators linked below compute it exactly.
Is Kalshi-vs-Polymarket arbitrage real?
The price gaps are real and measured here. Whether a gap is an arbitrage depends on fees (subtracted in every number we show), order-book depth at your size, both legs filling before either moves, and both contracts settling identically — resolution rules differ in edge cases. Read both rule sets before acting.
How are pairs matched?
An automated matcher proposes Kalshi and Polymarket markets that ask the same question and a language-model reviewer confirms equivalence with a confidence score, shown on every pair. Only confirmed pairs are scanned; the pair is your responsibility to verify.