2028 Democratic presidential nominee Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. Listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket; recorded continuously since Aug 9, 2026. Live.
Current gap between the two mids: 2.7¢. Over the last 7 days the two venues differed by 3.0% on average and 4.0% at most.
Price history, both venues (7 days)
Data table
| time (UTC) | kalshi mid | polymarket mid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 11:25 | 15.5% | 18.6% |
| Sep 19 11:30 | 15.5% | 18.6% |
| Sep 19 11:35 | 15.5% | 18.5% |
| Sep 19 12:00 | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| Sep 19 12:25 | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| Sep 19 12:35 | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| Sep 19 12:45 | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| Sep 19 13:00 | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| Sep 19 13:30 | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| Sep 19 13:35 | 15.5% | 18.3% |
| Sep 19 14:00 | 15.5% | 18.4% |
| Sep 19 14:15 | 15.5% | 18.3% |
| Sep 19 14:25 | 15.5% | 18.3% |
| Sep 19 14:30 | 15.5% | 18.1% |
| Sep 19 14:35 | 15.5% | 18.1% |
| Sep 19 14:45 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 14:50 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 14:55 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 15:00 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 15:05 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 15:20 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 15:25 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 15:30 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 15:35 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 16:00 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 16:10 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 16:20 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 16:35 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 16:40 | 15.5% | 18.2% |
| Sep 19 16:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 17:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 17:05 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 17:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 17:40 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 17:45 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 17:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 18:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 18:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 18:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 18:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 18:40 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 18:45 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 18:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 18:55 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 19:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 19:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 19:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 19:25 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 19:40 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 19:45 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 19:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 19:55 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 20:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 20:05 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 20:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 20:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 20:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 20:40 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 20:45 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:05 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:25 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:30 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:40 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:55 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:30 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:45 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:55 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 23:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 23:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 23:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 00:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 00:05 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 00:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 00:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 00:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 00:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 00:40 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 00:55 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 01:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 01:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 01:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 01:30 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 01:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 01:45 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 01:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 02:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 02:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 02:30 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 02:45 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 03:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 03:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 03:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 03:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 03:25 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 03:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 03:40 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 03:45 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 03:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 03:55 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 04:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 04:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 04:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 04:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 04:40 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 04:55 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 05:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 05:05 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 05:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 05:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 05:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 06:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 06:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 06:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 06:25 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 06:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 06:45 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 07:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 07:25 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 07:30 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 07:35 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 07:40 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 07:45 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 07:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 08:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 08:55 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 09:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 09:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 09:30 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 10:00 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 10:05 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 10:10 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 10:15 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 10:20 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 10:40 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 10:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 20 11:00 | 15.5% | — |
Mid price of the YES side per venue, 5-minute buckets, from continuously recorded order books. Breaks mean the recorder was down or a book was empty.
Recent disagreement windows
| Opened | Closed | Length | Scans | Max net edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 6:01 AM ET | Sep 20, 7:01 AM ET | 60 min | 12 | 0.37% |
| Sep 19, 8:01 PM ET | Sep 20, 5:31 AM ET | 9.5 h | 104 | 0.40% |
| Sep 19, 9:32 AM ET | Sep 19, 7:16 PM ET | 9.7 h | 142 | 0.68% |
| Sep 19, 4:15 AM ET | Sep 19, 9:01 AM ET | 4.8 h | 44 | 0.79% |
| Sep 19, 3:08 AM ET | Sep 19, 3:40 AM ET | 31 min | 5 | 0.57% |
| Sep 18, 3:55 PM ET | Sep 19, 2:33 AM ET | 10.6 h | 112 | 0.67% |
| Sep 18, 2:01 AM ET | Sep 18, 3:17 PM ET | 13.3 h | 292 | 0.74% |
| Sep 17, 6:17 AM ET | Sep 18, 1:19 AM ET | 19.0 h | 203 | 0.64% |
| Sep 17, 5:01 AM ET | Sep 17, 5:06 AM ET | 4 min | 2 | 0.45% |
| Sep 16, 7:48 AM ET | Sep 17, 4:10 AM ET | 20.4 h | 215 | 0.51% |
Related markets on both venues
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Kalshi and Polymarket odds for "2028 Democratic presidential nominee Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"?
As of the latest recorded books, Kalshi's YES mid is 15.5¢ (bid 0.15, ask 0.16) and Polymarket's is 18.2¢ (bid 0.181, ask 0.183) — a 2.7¢ gap. Prices are recorded continuously; this page refreshes every few minutes.
Has this market been an arbitrage?
Yes — 47 separate windows where buying the cheaper side on each venue cost less than $1 after both fees, first on Aug 12, 2026 and most recently Sep 20, 2026. The largest net edge was 3.77% and windows averaged 623 minutes.
Do both contracts resolve the same way?
The pair was confirmed as the same question (AI-matched · 98%). That judgment covers the headline question; resolution rules can still differ in edge cases (sources, timing, ties). Read both venues' rules before treating a gap as risk-free.
What do the fees do to the gap?
Kalshi charges takers 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract; Polymarket charges its category rate on the same curve. Near 50¢ that is roughly 1.75¢ per contract on Kalshi and 1–1.75¢ on Polymarket, so a visible gap of 3–4¢ is typically the minimum before anything is left.
← every Kalshi↔Polymarket pair · resolution criteria · taker fees · match: AI-matched · 98%. Verify both markets' rules yourself; this is data, not advice.