Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader? Before Jan 1, 2027
Nigel Farage ceases to be Reform UK leader before Jan 1, 2027 (by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), via announcement or official communication, regardless of effective date.. Listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket; recorded continuously since Aug 17, 2026. Live.
Current gap between the two mids: 1.5¢. Over the last 7 days the two venues differed by 4.4% on average and 7.0% at most.
Price history, both venues (7 days)
Data table
| time (UTC) | kalshi mid | polymarket mid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 17:25 | 15.5% | 12.5% |
| Sep 19 17:30 | 15.5% | 12.5% |
| Sep 19 17:35 | 15.5% | 12.5% |
| Sep 19 18:20 | 15.5% | 12.5% |
| Sep 19 18:55 | 15.5% | 12.5% |
| Sep 19 19:00 | 15.7% | — |
| Sep 19 19:05 | 15.6% | — |
| Sep 19 19:10 | 15.9% | — |
| Sep 19 19:15 | 16.3% | — |
| Sep 19 19:20 | 15.6% | — |
| Sep 19 19:25 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 19:30 | 15.7% | — |
| Sep 19 19:35 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 19:40 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 19:45 | 15.6% | — |
| Sep 19 19:50 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 19:55 | 15.7% | — |
| Sep 19 20:00 | 15.7% | — |
| Sep 19 20:05 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 20:10 | 16.2% | — |
| Sep 19 20:15 | 15.7% | — |
| Sep 19 20:20 | 16.1% | — |
| Sep 19 20:25 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 20:30 | 15.9% | — |
| Sep 19 20:35 | 16.0% | — |
| Sep 19 20:40 | 15.9% | — |
| Sep 19 20:45 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 20:50 | 16.2% | — |
| Sep 19 20:55 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 21:00 | 15.7% | — |
| Sep 19 21:05 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 21:10 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 21:15 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 21:20 | 16.4% | — |
| Sep 19 21:25 | 16.1% | — |
| Sep 19 21:30 | 16.1% | — |
| Sep 19 21:35 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 21:40 | 15.9% | — |
| Sep 19 21:45 | 15.9% | — |
| Sep 19 21:50 | 15.6% | — |
| Sep 19 21:55 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 22:00 | 15.6% | — |
| Sep 19 22:05 | 15.9% | — |
| Sep 19 22:10 | 16.0% | — |
| Sep 19 22:15 | 16.0% | — |
| Sep 19 22:20 | 15.7% | — |
| Sep 19 22:25 | 15.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:30 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 22:35 | 15.8% | — |
| Sep 19 22:40 | 14.5% | — |
| Sep 19 22:45 | 15.3% | — |
| Sep 19 22:50 | 14.4% | — |
| Sep 19 22:55 | 13.8% | — |
| Sep 19 23:00 | 13.5% | — |
| Sep 19 23:05 | 14.5% | — |
| Sep 19 23:10 | 14.2% | — |
| Sep 19 23:15 | 14.4% | — |
| Sep 19 23:20 | 14.2% | — |
| Sep 19 23:25 | 14.5% | — |
| Sep 19 23:30 | 14.5% | — |
| Sep 19 23:35 | 14.5% | — |
| Sep 19 23:40 | 14.5% | — |
| Sep 19 23:45 | 14.2% | — |
| Sep 19 23:50 | 14.5% | — |
| Sep 19 23:55 | 14.5% | — |
| Sep 20 00:00 | 14.5% | — |
| Sep 20 00:05 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 00:10 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 00:15 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 00:20 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 00:40 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 00:50 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 00:55 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 01:10 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 01:15 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 01:25 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 01:45 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 01:50 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 01:55 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 02:00 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 02:05 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 02:15 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 02:30 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 03:05 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 03:10 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 03:25 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 03:30 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 03:35 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 03:40 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 04:10 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 04:20 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 04:30 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 04:45 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 04:50 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 05:10 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 05:15 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 05:20 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 05:50 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 05:55 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 06:00 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 06:15 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 06:20 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 06:25 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 06:35 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 06:40 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 06:45 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 06:55 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 07:00 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 07:15 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 07:25 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 07:30 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 07:35 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 07:45 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 07:50 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 08:00 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 08:05 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 08:30 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 08:35 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 08:40 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 09:00 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 09:10 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 09:15 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 09:25 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 09:45 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 09:50 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 10:00 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 10:05 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 10:15 | 14.0% | — |
| Sep 20 10:20 | 14.0% | — |
Mid price of the YES side per venue, 5-minute buckets, from continuously recorded order books. Breaks mean the recorder was down or a book was empty.
Recent disagreement windows
| Opened | Closed | Length | Scans | Max net edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 5:16 PM ET | Sep 19, 5:31 PM ET | 15 min | 9 | 0.65% |
| Sep 19, 3:55 PM ET | Sep 19, 3:58 PM ET | 4 min | 5 | 0.65% |
| Sep 19, 1:03 AM ET | Sep 19, 1:03 AM ET | 0 min | 1 | 0.66% |
| Sep 18, 11:48 PM ET | Sep 18, 11:48 PM ET | 0 min | 1 | 0.73% |
| Sep 18, 9:53 PM ET | Sep 18, 9:58 PM ET | 5 min | 2 | 0.73% |
| Sep 18, 7:32 PM ET | Sep 18, 7:56 PM ET | 24 min | 2 | 0.73% |
| Sep 18, 5:51 PM ET | Sep 18, 6:27 PM ET | 36 min | 4 | 0.73% |
| Sep 18, 4:06 PM ET | Sep 18, 5:13 PM ET | 67 min | 8 | 0.57% |
| Sep 18, 3:28 PM ET | Sep 18, 3:29 PM ET | 1 min | 2 | 0.57% |
| Sep 18, 2:30 PM ET | Sep 18, 2:55 PM ET | 24 min | 5 | 0.57% |
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Kalshi and Polymarket odds for "Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader? Before Jan 1, 2027"?
As of the latest recorded books, Kalshi's YES mid is 14.0¢ (bid 0.12, ask 0.16) and Polymarket's is 12.5¢ (bid 0.12, ask 0.13) — a 1.5¢ gap. Prices are recorded continuously; this page refreshes every few minutes.
Has this market been an arbitrage?
Yes — 129 separate windows where buying the cheaper side on each venue cost less than $1 after both fees, first on Aug 21, 2026 and most recently Sep 19, 2026. The largest net edge was 2.53% and windows averaged 83 minutes.
Do both contracts resolve the same way?
The pair was confirmed as the same question (AI-matched · 98%). That judgment covers the headline question; resolution rules can still differ in edge cases (sources, timing, ties). Read both venues' rules before treating a gap as risk-free.
What do the fees do to the gap?
Kalshi charges takers 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract; Polymarket charges its category rate on the same curve. Near 50¢ that is roughly 1.75¢ per contract on Kalshi and 1–1.75¢ on Polymarket, so a visible gap of 3–4¢ is typically the minimum before anything is left.
← every Kalshi↔Polymarket pair · resolution criteria · taker fees · match: AI-matched · 98%. Verify both markets' rules yourself; this is data, not advice.