Hard Rock Bet vs Caesars: where their odds disagree
Over the last 30 days, Hard Rock Bet and Caesars quoted the same line at prices that summed to less than 100% on 58 game-markets — a cross-book arbitrage — with an average net edge of 4.00% and a peak of 14.07%. On plain vig, Hard Rock Bet is the cheaper book of the two. Last disagreement: Sep 19, 2026.
Vig: Hard Rock Bet vs Caesars
| Hard Rock Bet | Caesars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall overround | 4.63% | 5.78% |
| Moneyline | 4.19% | 5.12% |
| Spreads | 5.07% | 6.09% |
| Totals | 4.63% | 6.16% |
| NFL | 4.57% | 6.12% |
| MLB | 3.86% | 4.13% |
| NHL | 5.33% | 4.67% |
| NBA | — | 4.58% |
Disagreements by sport
How big the edges were
Share of detections by net edge bucket. Most cross-book edges are small; the tail is where the money and the execution risk both live.
Recent examples
Best detection per game-market, most recent first. These windows have closed.
| Game | Market | Legs | Net edge | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians · MLB | total 8.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ Caesars | 12.09% | Sep 18, 9:51 PM ET |
| Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds · MLB | total 11.5 | Over @ Caesars + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 1.49% | Sep 18, 8:19 PM ET |
| Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox · MLB | total 8.5 | Over @ Caesars + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 1.38% | Sep 18, 7:48 PM ET |
| Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels · MLB | moneyline | Los Angeles Angels @ Caesars + Minnesota Twins @ Hard Rock Bet | 9.99% | Sep 18, 12:22 AM ET |
| Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers · MLB | total 5.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ Caesars | 3.37% | Sep 17, 10:35 PM ET |
| San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies · MLB | moneyline | Colorado Rockies @ Hard Rock Bet + San Diego Padres @ Caesars | 4.05% | Sep 17, 3:43 PM ET |
| Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks · MLB | total 4.5 | Over @ Caesars + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 1.37% | Sep 15, 11:35 PM ET |
| Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks · MLB | moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Caesars + Miami Marlins @ Hard Rock Bet | 11.72% | Sep 15, 10:50 PM ET |
| Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets · MLB | moneyline | Baltimore Orioles @ Caesars + New York Mets @ Hard Rock Bet | 0.75% | Sep 15, 10:34 PM ET |
| San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies · MLB | total 16.5 | Over @ Caesars + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 3.54% | Sep 14, 11:49 PM ET |
| Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets · MLB | moneyline | Baltimore Orioles @ Hard Rock Bet + New York Mets @ Caesars | 10.29% | Sep 14, 9:32 PM ET |
| Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians · MLB | moneyline | Chicago White Sox @ Caesars + Cleveland Guardians @ Hard Rock Bet | 0.44% | Sep 14, 8:30 PM ET |
| San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals · MLB | spread 1.5 | San Francisco Giants @ Caesars + St. Louis Cardinals @ Hard Rock Bet | 1.28% | Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET |
| Seattle Mariners @ Athletics · MLB | spread 1.5 | Athletics @ Caesars + Seattle Mariners @ Hard Rock Bet | 12.00% | Sep 13, 6:50 PM ET |
| New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions · NFL | total 45.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ Caesars | 6.44% | Sep 13, 3:47 PM ET |
Frequently asked questions
How often do Hard Rock Bet and Caesars disagree?
In the last 30 days our scanner recorded 58 game-markets where Hard Rock Bet and Caesars quoted the same line at prices whose implied probabilities summed to less than 100% — a cross-book arbitrage — across 60 scans. The average net edge was 4.00% and the largest 14.07%.
Which has lower vig, Hard Rock Bet or Caesars?
Hard Rock Bet — Hard Rock Bet measures 4.63% overall and Caesars measures 5.78% over 30 days of live lines. The per-market and per-sport breakdown is in the table above.
Does this mean I can make money betting both?
Not automatically. These are measurements of past disagreements at the moment they were detected. Lines move within minutes, displayed prices may not be available at your stake, both books must be accessible in your state, and neither book has to honor a stale price. ArbMonster shows the math; the execution and the risk are yours.
Which sports do Hard Rock Bet and Caesars disagree on most?
MLB (56 game-markets, avg 4.02%); NFL (2 game-markets, avg 3.37%).
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