Fliff vs Caesars: where their odds disagree
Over the last 30 days, Fliff and Caesars quoted the same line at prices that summed to less than 100% on 43 game-markets — a cross-book arbitrage — with an average net edge of 3.81% and a peak of 13.68%. On plain vig, Caesars is the cheaper book of the two. Last disagreement: Sep 19, 2026.
Vig: Fliff vs Caesars
| Fliff | Caesars | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall overround | 6.23% | 5.78% |
| Moneyline | 5.61% | 5.12% |
| Spreads | 6.49% | 6.09% |
| Totals | 6.50% | 6.16% |
| NFL | 6.07% | 6.12% |
| MLB | 6.13% | 4.13% |
| MLS | 9.87% | — |
| NBA | — | 4.58% |
| NHL | — | 4.67% |
Disagreements by sport
How big the edges were
Share of detections by net edge bucket. Most cross-book edges are small; the tail is where the money and the execution risk both live.
Recent examples
Best detection per game-market, most recent first. These windows have closed.
| Game | Market | Legs | Net edge | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles · MLB | spread 1.5 | Baltimore Orioles @ Caesars + Milwaukee Brewers @ Fliff | 1.43% | Sep 18, 10:52 PM ET |
| Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians · MLB | spread 1.5 | Athletics @ Fliff + Cleveland Guardians @ Caesars | 8.71% | Sep 18, 9:51 PM ET |
| Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers · MLB | spread 1.5 | Boston Red Sox @ Fliff + Texas Rangers @ Caesars | 8.81% | Sep 17, 11:05 PM ET |
| San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies · MLB | spread 7.5 | Colorado Rockies @ Caesars + San Diego Padres @ Fliff | 0.86% | Sep 16, 10:15 PM ET |
| Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets · MLB | spread 5.5 | Baltimore Orioles @ Fliff + New York Mets @ Caesars | 2.44% | Sep 16, 7:59 PM ET |
| Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs · NFL | total 48.5 | Over @ Fliff + Under @ Caesars | 8.27% | Sep 14, 10:48 PM ET |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers · MLB | spread 2.5 | Cincinnati Reds @ Fliff + Milwaukee Brewers @ Caesars | 1.11% | Sep 13, 3:17 PM ET |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves · MLB | spread 6.5 | Atlanta Braves @ Caesars + Philadelphia Phillies @ Fliff | 3.03% | Sep 12, 9:45 PM ET |
| Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays · MLB | total 6.5 | Over @ Fliff + Under @ Caesars | 1.11% | Sep 12, 7:27 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins · MLB | spread 1.5 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Caesars + Miami Marlins @ Fliff | 1.01% | Sep 12, 5:40 PM ET |
| New York Mets @ New York Yankees · MLB | moneyline | New York Mets @ Fliff + New York Yankees @ Caesars | 1.27% | Sep 11, 9:02 PM ET |
| Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners · MLB | total 7.5 | Over @ Caesars + Under @ Fliff | 2.71% | Sep 10, 5:15 PM ET |
| Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees · MLB | total 7.5 | Over @ Fliff + Under @ Caesars | 1.08% | Sep 9, 9:05 PM ET |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants · MLB | spread 4.5 | San Francisco Giants @ Caesars + St. Louis Cardinals @ Fliff | 0.98% | Sep 9, 5:16 PM ET |
| Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals · MLB | moneyline | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Fliff + Kansas City Royals @ Caesars | 5.00% | Sep 8, 10:39 PM ET |
Frequently asked questions
How often do Fliff and Caesars disagree?
In the last 30 days our scanner recorded 43 game-markets where Fliff and Caesars quoted the same line at prices whose implied probabilities summed to less than 100% — a cross-book arbitrage — across 44 scans. The average net edge was 3.81% and the largest 13.68%.
Which has lower vig, Fliff or Caesars?
Caesars — Fliff measures 6.23% overall and Caesars measures 5.78% over 30 days of live lines. The per-market and per-sport breakdown is in the table above.
Does this mean I can make money betting both?
Not automatically. These are measurements of past disagreements at the moment they were detected. Lines move within minutes, displayed prices may not be available at your stake, both books must be accessible in your state, and neither book has to honor a stale price. ArbMonster shows the math; the execution and the risk are yours.
Which sports do Fliff and Caesars disagree on most?
MLB (42 game-markets, avg 3.71%); NFL (1 game-markets, avg 8.27%).
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