Fliff vs Hard Rock Bet: where their odds disagree
Over the last 30 days, Fliff and Hard Rock Bet quoted the same line at prices that summed to less than 100% on 22 game-markets — a cross-book arbitrage — with an average net edge of 3.46% and a peak of 13.53%. On plain vig, Hard Rock Bet is the cheaper book of the two. Last disagreement: Sep 19, 2026.
Vig: Fliff vs Hard Rock Bet
| Fliff | Hard Rock Bet | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall overround | 6.23% | 4.63% |
| Moneyline | 5.61% | 4.19% |
| Spreads | 6.49% | 5.07% |
| Totals | 6.50% | 4.63% |
| NFL | 6.07% | 4.57% |
| MLB | 6.13% | 3.86% |
| MLS | 9.87% | — |
| NHL | — | 5.33% |
Disagreements by sport
How big the edges were
Share of detections by net edge bucket. Most cross-book edges are small; the tail is where the money and the execution risk both live.
Recent examples
Best detection per game-market, most recent first. These windows have closed.
| Game | Market | Legs | Net edge | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers · MLB | spread 6.5 | Texas Rangers @ Fliff + Toronto Blue Jays @ Hard Rock Bet | 2.24% | Sep 18, 10:22 PM ET |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · MLB | total 10.5 | Over @ Fliff + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 0.27% | Sep 16, 10:00 PM ET |
| Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs · MLB | spread 4.5 | Atlanta Braves @ Fliff + Chicago Cubs @ Hard Rock Bet | 3.65% | Sep 16, 9:45 PM ET |
| Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers · MLB | spread 1.5 | Boston Red Sox @ Fliff + Texas Rangers @ Hard Rock Bet | 0.20% | Sep 15, 11:20 PM ET |
| San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies · MLB | total 12.5 | Over @ Fliff + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 3.37% | Sep 15, 10:50 PM ET |
| Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays · MLB | total 10.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ Fliff | 5.88% | Sep 14, 9:32 PM ET |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals · NFL | moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals @ Hard Rock Bet + Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Fliff | 0.23% | Sep 13, 2:47 PM ET |
| Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals · MLB | spread 2.5 | Chicago White Sox @ Hard Rock Bet + St. Louis Cardinals @ Fliff | 7.50% | Sep 12, 8:59 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals · MLB | total 8.5 | Over @ Fliff + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 9.20% | Sep 12, 6:26 PM ET |
| Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles · MLB | total 4.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ Fliff | 1.18% | Sep 6, 4:24 PM ET |
| Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies · MLB | total 6.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ Fliff | 2.43% | Sep 5, 8:32 PM ET |
| St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies · MLB | moneyline | Colorado Rockies @ Fliff + St. Louis Cardinals @ Hard Rock Bet | 4.35% | Sep 4, 11:33 PM ET |
| Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox · MLB | spread 2.5 | Chicago White Sox @ Fliff + Minnesota Twins @ Hard Rock Bet | 4.84% | Sep 4, 10:01 PM ET |
| Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins · MLB | total 17.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ Fliff | 1.08% | Sep 1, 9:55 PM ET |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks · MLB | total 4.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ Fliff | 1.46% | Sep 1, 12:43 AM ET |
Frequently asked questions
How often do Fliff and Hard Rock Bet disagree?
In the last 30 days our scanner recorded 22 game-markets where Fliff and Hard Rock Bet quoted the same line at prices whose implied probabilities summed to less than 100% — a cross-book arbitrage — across 22 scans. The average net edge was 3.46% and the largest 13.53%.
Which has lower vig, Fliff or Hard Rock Bet?
Hard Rock Bet — Fliff measures 6.23% overall and Hard Rock Bet measures 4.63% over 30 days of live lines. The per-market and per-sport breakdown is in the table above.
Does this mean I can make money betting both?
Not automatically. These are measurements of past disagreements at the moment they were detected. Lines move within minutes, displayed prices may not be available at your stake, both books must be accessible in your state, and neither book has to honor a stale price. ArbMonster shows the math; the execution and the risk are yours.
Which sports do Fliff and Hard Rock Bet disagree on most?
MLB (21 game-markets, avg 3.62%); NFL (1 game-markets, avg 0.23%).
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