ESPN BET vs Hard Rock Bet: where their odds disagree
Over the last 30 days, ESPN BET and Hard Rock Bet quoted the same line at prices that summed to less than 100% on 15 game-markets — a cross-book arbitrage — with an average net edge of 3.54% and a peak of 12.83%. On plain vig, ESPN BET is the cheaper book of the two. Last disagreement: Sep 17, 2026.
Vig: ESPN BET vs Hard Rock Bet
| ESPN BET | Hard Rock Bet | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall overround | 4.55% | 4.63% |
| Moneyline | 4.12% | 4.19% |
| Spreads | 4.87% | 5.07% |
| Totals | 4.66% | 4.63% |
| NFL | 4.54% | 4.57% |
| MLB | 4.45% | 3.86% |
| NBA | 4.51% | — |
| NHL | 4.69% | 5.33% |
Disagreements by sport
| Sport | Game-markets | Avg net edge | Max net edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 15 | 3.54% | 12.83% |
How big the edges were
Share of detections by net edge bucket. Most cross-book edges are small; the tail is where the money and the execution risk both live.
Recent examples
Best detection per game-market, most recent first. These windows have closed.
| Game | Market | Legs | Net edge | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels · MLB | total 9.5 | Over @ ESPN BET + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 1.11% | Sep 16, 9:45 PM ET |
| Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays · MLB | spread 3.5 | Athletics @ ESPN BET + Tampa Bay Rays @ Hard Rock Bet | 5.00% | Sep 16, 7:13 PM ET |
| Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays · MLB | total 7.5 | Over @ ESPN BET + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 2.24% | Sep 16, 3:55 PM ET |
| Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs · MLB | total 11.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ ESPN BET | 0.92% | Sep 14, 9:47 PM ET |
| Seattle Mariners @ Athletics · MLB | total 14.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ ESPN BET | 5.00% | Sep 13, 7:05 PM ET |
| Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals · MLB | total 5.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ ESPN BET | 3.31% | Sep 13, 4:02 PM ET |
| Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers · MLB | total 18.5 | Over @ ESPN BET + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 3.89% | Sep 12, 4:24 PM ET |
| Seattle Mariners @ Athletics · MLB | total 10.5 | Over @ ESPN BET + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 2.86% | Sep 12, 1:06 AM ET |
| Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays · MLB | total 10.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ ESPN BET | 1.15% | Sep 11, 8:31 PM ET |
| Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers · MLB | spread 6.5 | Cincinnati Reds @ ESPN BET + Los Angeles Dodgers @ Hard Rock Bet | 3.61% | Sep 9, 11:21 PM ET |
| Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles · MLB | spread 1.5 | Baltimore Orioles @ Hard Rock Bet + Boston Red Sox @ ESPN BET | 12.83% | Sep 6, 4:24 PM ET |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals · MLB | total 10.5 | Over @ ESPN BET + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 1.23% | Sep 4, 8:14 PM ET |
| New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays · MLB | total 11.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ ESPN BET | 1.11% | Sep 2, 7:36 PM ET |
| Houston Astros @ New York Yankees · MLB | total 9.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ ESPN BET | 1.11% | Aug 26, 8:23 PM ET |
| Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox · MLB | total 13.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ ESPN BET | 7.71% | Aug 24, 10:55 PM ET |
Frequently asked questions
How often do ESPN BET and Hard Rock Bet disagree?
In the last 30 days our scanner recorded 15 game-markets where ESPN BET and Hard Rock Bet quoted the same line at prices whose implied probabilities summed to less than 100% — a cross-book arbitrage — across 15 scans. The average net edge was 3.54% and the largest 12.83%.
Which has lower vig, ESPN BET or Hard Rock Bet?
ESPN BET — ESPN BET measures 4.55% overall and Hard Rock Bet measures 4.63% over 30 days of live lines. The per-market and per-sport breakdown is in the table above.
Does this mean I can make money betting both?
Not automatically. These are measurements of past disagreements at the moment they were detected. Lines move within minutes, displayed prices may not be available at your stake, both books must be accessible in your state, and neither book has to honor a stale price. ArbMonster shows the math; the execution and the risk are yours.
Which sports do ESPN BET and Hard Rock Bet disagree on most?
MLB (15 game-markets, avg 3.54%).
← all sportsbooks · ESPN BET · Hard Rock Bet · what arbitrage is · dutching calculator