DraftKings vs Hard Rock Bet: where their odds disagree
Over the last 30 days, DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet quoted the same line at prices that summed to less than 100% on 42 game-markets — a cross-book arbitrage — with an average net edge of 3.18% and a peak of 12.97%. On plain vig, DraftKings is the cheaper book of the two. Last disagreement: Sep 19, 2026.
Vig: DraftKings vs Hard Rock Bet
| DraftKings | Hard Rock Bet | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall overround | 4.54% | 4.63% |
| Moneyline | 4.28% | 4.19% |
| Spreads | 4.66% | 5.07% |
| Totals | 4.69% | 4.63% |
| NFL | 4.57% | 4.57% |
| MLB | 4.65% | 3.86% |
| NBA | 4.58% | — |
| NHL | 4.33% | 5.33% |
Disagreements by sport
How big the edges were
Share of detections by net edge bucket. Most cross-book edges are small; the tail is where the money and the execution risk both live.
Recent examples
Best detection per game-market, most recent first. These windows have closed.
| Game | Market | Legs | Net edge | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals · MLB | spread 7.5 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Hard Rock Bet + Washington Nationals @ DraftKings | 0.93% | Sep 18, 10:52 PM ET |
| Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians · MLB | total 8.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ DraftKings | 1.57% | Sep 18, 8:19 PM ET |
| Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels · MLB | spread 3.5 | Los Angeles Angels @ Hard Rock Bet + Minnesota Twins @ DraftKings | 0.55% | Sep 17, 11:05 PM ET |
| San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals · MLB | total 6.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ DraftKings | 6.46% | Sep 16, 3:55 PM ET |
| Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks · MLB | total 5.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ DraftKings | 0.58% | Sep 15, 11:20 PM ET |
| San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals · MLB | spread 5.5 | San Francisco Giants @ DraftKings + St. Louis Cardinals @ Hard Rock Bet | 0.74% | Sep 15, 10:19 PM ET |
| San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies · MLB | spread 4.5 | Colorado Rockies @ Hard Rock Bet + San Diego Padres @ DraftKings | 1.70% | Sep 14, 10:17 PM ET |
| Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs · MLB | moneyline | Atlanta Braves @ Hard Rock Bet + Chicago Cubs @ DraftKings | 1.15% | Sep 14, 10:17 PM ET |
| Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs · MLB | total 10.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ DraftKings | 5.24% | Sep 14, 10:02 PM ET |
| Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers · NFL | moneyline | Arizona Cardinals @ Hard Rock Bet + Los Angeles Chargers @ DraftKings | 5.55% | Sep 13, 5:03 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins · MLB | total 5.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ DraftKings | 3.37% | Sep 13, 3:32 PM ET |
| San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants · MLB | total 12.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ DraftKings | 5.31% | Sep 12, 1:21 AM ET |
| Seattle Mariners @ Athletics · MLB | moneyline | Athletics @ DraftKings + Seattle Mariners @ Hard Rock Bet | 6.92% | Sep 12, 12:35 AM ET |
| New York Mets @ New York Yankees · MLB | total 10.5 | Over @ DraftKings + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 4.14% | Sep 11, 10:03 PM ET |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox · MLB | total 6.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ DraftKings | 3.09% | Sep 9, 10:06 PM ET |
Frequently asked questions
How often do DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet disagree?
In the last 30 days our scanner recorded 42 game-markets where DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet quoted the same line at prices whose implied probabilities summed to less than 100% — a cross-book arbitrage — across 43 scans. The average net edge was 3.18% and the largest 12.97%.
Which has lower vig, DraftKings or Hard Rock Bet?
DraftKings — DraftKings measures 4.54% overall and Hard Rock Bet measures 4.63% over 30 days of live lines. The per-market and per-sport breakdown is in the table above.
Does this mean I can make money betting both?
Not automatically. These are measurements of past disagreements at the moment they were detected. Lines move within minutes, displayed prices may not be available at your stake, both books must be accessible in your state, and neither book has to honor a stale price. ArbMonster shows the math; the execution and the risk are yours.
Which sports do DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet disagree on most?
MLB (41 game-markets, avg 3.13%); NFL (1 game-markets, avg 5.55%).
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