BetMGM vs Hard Rock Bet: where their odds disagree
Over the last 30 days, BetMGM and Hard Rock Bet quoted the same line at prices that summed to less than 100% on 58 game-markets — a cross-book arbitrage — with an average net edge of 3.96% and a peak of 13.49%. On plain vig, Hard Rock Bet is the cheaper book of the two. Last disagreement: Sep 19, 2026.
Vig: BetMGM vs Hard Rock Bet
| BetMGM | Hard Rock Bet | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall overround | 4.96% | 4.63% |
| Moneyline | 4.45% | 4.19% |
| Spreads | 4.65% | 5.07% |
| Totals | 5.58% | 4.63% |
| NFL | 4.39% | 4.57% |
| MLB | 4.81% | 3.86% |
| NBA | 4.60% | — |
| NHL | 4.56% | 5.33% |
| MLS | 8.73% | — |
Disagreements by sport
How big the edges were
Share of detections by net edge bucket. Most cross-book edges are small; the tail is where the money and the execution risk both live.
Recent examples
Best detection per game-market, most recent first. These windows have closed.
| Game | Market | Legs | Net edge | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres · MLB | spread 5.5 | Miami Marlins @ BetMGM + San Diego Padres @ Hard Rock Bet | 9.09% | Sep 19, 12:24 AM ET |
| Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies · MLB | total 10.5 | Over @ BetMGM + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 2.88% | Sep 18, 10:37 PM ET |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets · MLB | total 9.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ BetMGM | 6.27% | Sep 18, 9:51 PM ET |
| Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels · MLB | moneyline | Los Angeles Angels @ BetMGM + Minnesota Twins @ Hard Rock Bet | 5.53% | Sep 17, 11:51 PM ET |
| Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels · MLB | total 11.5 | Over @ Hard Rock Bet + Under @ BetMGM | 11.24% | Sep 17, 12:01 AM ET |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds · MLB | moneyline | Cincinnati Reds @ Hard Rock Bet + Los Angeles Dodgers @ BetMGM | 1.85% | Sep 16, 9:30 PM ET |
| Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · MLB | moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers @ Hard Rock Bet + Pittsburgh Pirates @ BetMGM | 0.26% | Sep 16, 8:14 PM ET |
| Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays · MLB | moneyline | Detroit Tigers @ BetMGM + Toronto Blue Jays @ Hard Rock Bet | 3.14% | Sep 16, 3:55 PM ET |
| Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays · MLB | spread 1.5 | Detroit Tigers @ BetMGM + Toronto Blue Jays @ Hard Rock Bet | 4.24% | Sep 16, 3:55 PM ET |
| Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks · MLB | spread 1.5 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Hard Rock Bet + Miami Marlins @ BetMGM | 2.50% | Sep 15, 10:04 PM ET |
| Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers · MLB | moneyline | Boston Red Sox @ BetMGM + Texas Rangers @ Hard Rock Bet | 2.70% | Sep 15, 10:04 PM ET |
| New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins · MLB | spread 5.5 | Minnesota Twins @ BetMGM + New York Yankees @ Hard Rock Bet | 7.92% | Sep 15, 10:04 PM ET |
| San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies · MLB | spread 2.5 | Colorado Rockies @ BetMGM + San Diego Padres @ Hard Rock Bet | 1.23% | Sep 15, 8:47 PM ET |
| Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings · NFL | spread 10.5 | Green Bay Packers @ BetMGM + Minnesota Vikings @ Hard Rock Bet | 2.26% | Sep 13, 7:51 PM ET |
| Seattle Mariners @ Athletics · MLB | total 13.5 | Over @ BetMGM + Under @ Hard Rock Bet | 1.23% | Sep 13, 7:35 PM ET |
Frequently asked questions
How often do BetMGM and Hard Rock Bet disagree?
In the last 30 days our scanner recorded 58 game-markets where BetMGM and Hard Rock Bet quoted the same line at prices whose implied probabilities summed to less than 100% — a cross-book arbitrage — across 60 scans. The average net edge was 3.96% and the largest 13.49%.
Which has lower vig, BetMGM or Hard Rock Bet?
Hard Rock Bet — BetMGM measures 4.96% overall and Hard Rock Bet measures 4.63% over 30 days of live lines. The per-market and per-sport breakdown is in the table above.
Does this mean I can make money betting both?
Not automatically. These are measurements of past disagreements at the moment they were detected. Lines move within minutes, displayed prices may not be available at your stake, both books must be accessible in your state, and neither book has to honor a stale price. ArbMonster shows the math; the execution and the risk are yours.
Which sports do BetMGM and Hard Rock Bet disagree on most?
MLB (56 game-markets, avg 3.90%); NFL (2 game-markets, avg 5.69%).
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