BetMGM vs Fliff: where their odds disagree
Over the last 30 days, BetMGM and Fliff quoted the same line at prices that summed to less than 100% on 43 game-markets — a cross-book arbitrage — with an average net edge of 4.94% and a peak of 14.89%. On plain vig, BetMGM is the cheaper book of the two. Last disagreement: Sep 19, 2026.
Vig: BetMGM vs Fliff
| BetMGM | Fliff | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall overround | 4.96% | 6.23% |
| Moneyline | 4.45% | 5.61% |
| Spreads | 4.65% | 6.49% |
| Totals | 5.58% | 6.50% |
| NFL | 4.39% | 6.07% |
| MLB | 4.81% | 6.13% |
| NBA | 4.60% | — |
| NHL | 4.56% | — |
| MLS | 8.73% | 9.87% |
Disagreements by sport
How big the edges were
Share of detections by net edge bucket. Most cross-book edges are small; the tail is where the money and the execution risk both live.
Recent examples
Best detection per game-market, most recent first. These windows have closed.
| Game | Market | Legs | Net edge | Detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays · MLB | total 6.5 | Over @ Fliff + Under @ BetMGM | 0.92% | Sep 18, 9:20 PM ET |
| Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays · MLB | spread 2.5 | Boston Red Sox @ BetMGM + Tampa Bay Rays @ Fliff | 2.47% | Sep 18, 9:20 PM ET |
| Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds · MLB | spread 2.5 | Chicago Cubs @ Fliff + Cincinnati Reds @ BetMGM | 3.61% | Sep 18, 8:19 PM ET |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets · MLB | spread 1.5 | New York Mets @ Fliff + Philadelphia Phillies @ BetMGM | 0.98% | Sep 18, 7:33 PM ET |
| Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets · MLB | moneyline | New York Mets @ Fliff + Philadelphia Phillies @ BetMGM | 1.69% | Sep 18, 7:33 PM ET |
| Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds · MLB | total 5.5 | Over @ BetMGM + Under @ Fliff | 13.63% | Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET |
| Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs · MLB | total 5.5 | Over @ BetMGM + Under @ Fliff | 0.66% | Sep 13, 3:17 PM ET |
| New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions · NFL | moneyline | Detroit Lions @ Fliff + New Orleans Saints @ BetMGM | 6.69% | Sep 13, 2:02 PM ET |
| Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals · MLB | moneyline | Chicago White Sox @ Fliff + St. Louis Cardinals @ BetMGM | 1.23% | Sep 12, 9:29 PM ET |
| Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox · MLB | total 8.5 | Over @ BetMGM + Under @ Fliff | 1.23% | Sep 11, 7:30 PM ET |
| Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres · MLB | spread 6.5 | San Diego Padres @ Fliff + Washington Nationals @ BetMGM | 6.36% | Sep 9, 6:33 PM ET |
| Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres · MLB | total 11.5 | Over @ Fliff + Under @ BetMGM | 8.39% | Sep 9, 6:33 PM ET |
| Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics · MLB | total 5.5 | Over @ Fliff + Under @ BetMGM | 2.44% | Sep 9, 4:30 PM ET |
| Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves · MLB | spread 1.5 | Atlanta Braves @ Fliff + Tampa Bay Rays @ BetMGM | 2.59% | Sep 8, 7:35 PM ET |
| Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies · MLB | total 2.5 | Over @ Fliff + Under @ BetMGM | 7.84% | Sep 7, 2:59 PM ET |
Frequently asked questions
How often do BetMGM and Fliff disagree?
In the last 30 days our scanner recorded 43 game-markets where BetMGM and Fliff quoted the same line at prices whose implied probabilities summed to less than 100% — a cross-book arbitrage — across 43 scans. The average net edge was 4.94% and the largest 14.89%.
Which has lower vig, BetMGM or Fliff?
BetMGM — BetMGM measures 4.96% overall and Fliff measures 6.23% over 30 days of live lines. The per-market and per-sport breakdown is in the table above.
Does this mean I can make money betting both?
Not automatically. These are measurements of past disagreements at the moment they were detected. Lines move within minutes, displayed prices may not be available at your stake, both books must be accessible in your state, and neither book has to honor a stale price. ArbMonster shows the math; the execution and the risk are yours.
Which sports do BetMGM and Fliff disagree on most?
MLB (42 game-markets, avg 4.90%); NFL (1 game-markets, avg 6.69%).
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