Economy & finance prediction markets: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Fed decisions, inflation prints, rates and macro releases. We track 4 economy & finance questions listed on both exchanges (4 live now); 3 have disagreed by more than the fees at least once.
Most-disagreed economy & finance markets
| Market | Fee-clearing detections | Largest net edge | Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision at the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting | 3,201 | 1.89% | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in September Maintain current rate | 335 | 3.23% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| Fed decision at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting | 181 | 0.40% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Fed decision at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting | 0 | — | — |
Every shared economy & finance market
| Market | Outcome | Match | Detections | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision at the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting | No change to the target federal funds rate | human-reviewed | 3,201 | live |
| Central Bank of Brazil rate decision in September Maintain current rate | No change to the Bank of Brazil's primary policy rate (Selic target) at the S… | AI-matched · 98% | 335 | live |
| Fed decision at the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting | No change to the target federal funds rate | human-reviewed | 181 | live |
| Fed decision at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting | No change to the target federal funds rate | human-reviewed | 0 | live |
Frequently asked questions
Do Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on economy & finance markets?
Yes. Of the 4 economy & finance questions we track on both exchanges, 3 have shown at least one window where buying the cheaper side on each venue cost less than $1 after both fees, with net edges up to 1.89%.
What fees apply?
Kalshi charges takers 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract. Polymarket's economy & finance rate is about 5% on the same curve; makers pay nothing on either.
Do both contracts resolve identically?
Each pair was confirmed as the same question by an automated reviewer with a visible confidence score, but resolution rules can differ in edge cases. Read both rule sets before treating a gap as risk-free.
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