Orix Buffaloes vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Orix Buffaloes
Orix Buffaloes win the NPB game originally scheduled for Sep 21, 2026 at 1:00 AM EDT. Listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket; recorded continuously since Sep 21, 2026. Live.
Price history, both venues (7 days)
Data table
| time (UTC) | kalshi mid | polymarket mid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 04:35 | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| Sep 21 04:40 | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| Sep 21 04:45 | 32.5% | 33.5% |
| Sep 21 04:50 | 32.0% | 33.2% |
| Sep 21 04:55 | 31.5% | 32.6% |
| Sep 21 05:00 | 33.5% | 29.5% |
| Sep 21 05:05 | 29.8% | 26.3% |
| Sep 21 05:10 | 26.1% | 23.0% |
| Sep 21 05:15 | 18.5% | 11.0% |
| Sep 21 05:20 | 13.1% | 15.0% |
| Sep 21 05:25 | 18.2% | 13.5% |
| Sep 21 05:30 | 14.3% | 21.9% |
| Sep 21 05:35 | 11.4% | 30.9% |
| Sep 21 05:40 | 11.2% | 18.0% |
| Sep 21 05:45 | 15.4% | 20.7% |
| Sep 21 05:50 | 11.6% | 19.5% |
| Sep 21 05:55 | 13.1% | 19.0% |
| Sep 21 06:00 | 16.5% | 15.0% |
| Sep 21 06:05 | 19.2% | 9.0% |
| Sep 21 06:10 | 11.1% | 8.5% |
| Sep 21 06:15 | 10.7% | 4.2% |
| Sep 21 06:20 | 9.2% | — |
| Sep 21 06:25 | 9.8% | — |
| Sep 21 06:30 | 22.0% | — |
| Sep 21 06:35 | 37.3% | — |
| Sep 21 06:40 | 25.8% | — |
| Sep 21 06:45 | 20.7% | — |
| Sep 21 06:50 | 27.0% | — |
| Sep 21 06:55 | 29.0% | — |
| Sep 21 07:00 | 16.4% | — |
| Sep 21 07:05 | 21.7% | — |
| Sep 21 07:10 | 21.9% | — |
| Sep 21 07:15 | 18.6% | — |
| Sep 21 07:20 | 18.4% | — |
| Sep 21 07:25 | 21.2% | — |
| Sep 21 07:30 | 16.6% | — |
| Sep 21 07:35 | 14.1% | — |
| Sep 21 07:40 | 11.1% | — |
| Sep 21 07:45 | 9.3% | — |
| Sep 21 07:50 | 10.4% | — |
| Sep 21 07:55 | 12.4% | — |
| Sep 21 08:00 | 4.0% | — |
| Sep 21 08:05 | 3.7% | — |
| Sep 21 08:10 | 2.8% | — |
| Sep 21 08:15 | 4.6% | — |
Mid price of the YES side per venue, 5-minute buckets, from continuously recorded order books. Breaks mean the recorder was down or a book was empty.
Recent disagreement windows
| Opened | Closed | Length | Scans | Max net edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 3:54 AM ET | Sep 21, 4:18 AM ET | 24 min | 9 | 2.88% |
| Sep 21, 1:05 AM ET | Sep 21, 3:12 AM ET | 2.1 h | 106 | 5.87% |
Related markets on both venues
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Kalshi and Polymarket odds for "Orix Buffaloes vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Orix Buffaloes"?
As of the latest recorded books, Kalshi's YES mid is 0.0¢ (bid —, ask —) and Polymarket's is 0.0¢ (bid —, ask 0.001) — a —¢ gap. Prices are recorded continuously; this page refreshes every few minutes.
Has this market been an arbitrage?
Yes — 2 separate windows where buying the cheaper side on each venue cost less than $1 after both fees, first on Sep 21, 2026 and most recently Sep 21, 2026. The largest net edge was 5.87% and windows averaged 75 minutes.
Do both contracts resolve the same way?
The pair was confirmed as the same question (AI-matched · 95%). That judgment covers the headline question; resolution rules can still differ in edge cases (sources, timing, ties). Read both venues' rules before treating a gap as risk-free.
What do the fees do to the gap?
Kalshi charges takers 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract; Polymarket charges its category rate on the same curve. Near 50¢ that is roughly 1.75¢ per contract on Kalshi and 1–1.75¢ on Polymarket, so a visible gap of 3–4¢ is typically the minimum before anything is left.
← every Kalshi↔Polymarket pair · resolution criteria · taker fees · match: AI-matched · 95%. Verify both markets' rules yourself; this is data, not advice.