Orix Buffaloes vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters
Nippon Ham Fighters win the game. Listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket; recorded continuously since Sep 21, 2026. Live.
Price history, both venues (7 days)
Data table
| time (UTC) | kalshi mid |
|---|---|
| Sep 21 04:35 | 67.5% |
| Sep 21 04:40 | 67.5% |
| Sep 21 04:45 | 67.5% |
| Sep 21 04:50 | 68.3% |
| Sep 21 04:55 | 68.5% |
| Sep 21 05:00 | 66.7% |
| Sep 21 05:05 | 70.3% |
| Sep 21 05:10 | 74.3% |
| Sep 21 05:15 | 81.3% |
| Sep 21 05:20 | 86.1% |
| Sep 21 05:25 | 81.3% |
| Sep 21 05:30 | 85.3% |
| Sep 21 05:35 | 87.8% |
| Sep 21 05:40 | 88.6% |
| Sep 21 05:45 | 84.2% |
| Sep 21 05:50 | 87.6% |
| Sep 21 05:55 | 86.4% |
| Sep 21 06:00 | 82.5% |
| Sep 21 06:05 | 79.5% |
| Sep 21 06:10 | 88.1% |
| Sep 21 06:15 | 88.5% |
| Sep 21 06:20 | 90.3% |
| Sep 21 06:25 | 89.7% |
| Sep 21 06:30 | 77.6% |
| Sep 21 06:35 | 61.9% |
| Sep 21 06:40 | 72.7% |
| Sep 21 06:45 | 77.7% |
| Sep 21 06:50 | 72.1% |
| Sep 21 06:55 | 69.1% |
| Sep 21 07:00 | 83.5% |
| Sep 21 07:05 | 77.5% |
| Sep 21 07:10 | 76.5% |
| Sep 21 07:15 | 81.2% |
| Sep 21 07:20 | 81.2% |
| Sep 21 07:25 | 78.2% |
| Sep 21 07:30 | 82.3% |
| Sep 21 07:35 | 85.0% |
| Sep 21 07:40 | 87.5% |
| Sep 21 07:45 | 89.8% |
| Sep 21 07:50 | 89.0% |
| Sep 21 07:55 | 86.6% |
| Sep 21 08:00 | 95.6% |
| Sep 21 08:05 | 95.5% |
| Sep 21 08:10 | 96.5% |
| Sep 21 08:15 | 95.0% |
Mid price of the YES side per venue, 5-minute buckets, from continuously recorded order books. Breaks mean the recorder was down or a book was empty.
Recent disagreement windows
| Opened | Closed | Length | Scans | Max net edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 3:51 AM ET | Sep 21, 4:18 AM ET | 27 min | 7 | 4.01% |
| Sep 21, 1:07 AM ET | Sep 21, 3:12 AM ET | 2.1 h | 103 | 7.33% |
Related markets on both venues
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Kalshi and Polymarket odds for "Orix Buffaloes vs Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters"?
One venue's book has not been observed recently; the chart shows the last recorded prices.
Has this market been an arbitrage?
Yes — 2 separate windows where buying the cheaper side on each venue cost less than $1 after both fees, first on Sep 21, 2026 and most recently Sep 21, 2026. The largest net edge was 7.33% and windows averaged 76 minutes.
Do both contracts resolve the same way?
The pair was confirmed as the same question (AI-matched · 95%). That judgment covers the headline question; resolution rules can still differ in edge cases (sources, timing, ties). Read both venues' rules before treating a gap as risk-free.
What do the fees do to the gap?
Kalshi charges takers 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract; Polymarket charges its category rate on the same curve. Near 50¢ that is roughly 1.75¢ per contract on Kalshi and 1–1.75¢ on Polymarket, so a visible gap of 3–4¢ is typically the minimum before anything is left.
← every Kalshi↔Polymarket pair · resolution criteria · taker fees · match: AI-matched · 95%. Verify both markets' rules yourself; this is data, not advice.