Hiroshima Toyo Carp vs Chunichi Dragons Hiroshima Toyo Carp
Hiroshima Toyo Carp wins the NPB game. Listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket; recorded continuously since Sep 21, 2026. Live.
Price history, both venues (7 days)
Data table
| time (UTC) | kalshi mid | polymarket mid |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 06:00 | 5.3% | 4.7% |
| Sep 21 06:05 | 5.7% | 9.0% |
| Sep 21 06:10 | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Sep 21 06:15 | 4.8% | — |
| Sep 21 06:20 | 3.4% | — |
| Sep 21 06:25 | 2.5% | — |
| Sep 21 06:30 | 2.5% | — |
| Sep 21 06:35 | 2.5% | — |
| Sep 21 06:40 | 2.9% | — |
| Sep 21 06:45 | 2.9% | — |
| Sep 21 06:50 | 3.9% | — |
| Sep 21 06:55 | 3.7% | — |
| Sep 21 07:00 | 4.1% | — |
| Sep 21 07:05 | 2.7% | — |
| Sep 21 07:10 | 1.5% | — |
| Sep 21 07:45 | 1.5% | — |
Mid price of the YES side per venue, 5-minute buckets, from continuously recorded order books. Breaks mean the recorder was down or a book was empty.
Recent disagreement windows
| Opened | Closed | Length | Scans | Max net edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 3:07 AM ET | Sep 21, 4:12 AM ET | 65 min | 63 | 1.79% |
Related markets on both venues
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Kalshi and Polymarket odds for "Hiroshima Toyo Carp vs Chunichi Dragons Hiroshima Toyo Carp"?
As of the latest recorded books, Kalshi's YES mid is 0.0¢ (bid —, ask —) and Polymarket's is 0.0¢ (bid —, ask 0.009) — a —¢ gap. Prices are recorded continuously; this page refreshes every few minutes.
Has this market been an arbitrage?
Yes — 1 separate window where buying the cheaper side on each venue cost less than $1 after both fees, first on Sep 21, 2026 and most recently Sep 21, 2026. The largest net edge was 1.79% and windows averaged 65 minutes.
Do both contracts resolve the same way?
The pair was confirmed as the same question (AI-matched · 95%). That judgment covers the headline question; resolution rules can still differ in edge cases (sources, timing, ties). Read both venues' rules before treating a gap as risk-free.
What do the fees do to the gap?
Kalshi charges takers 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract; Polymarket charges its category rate on the same curve. Near 50¢ that is roughly 1.75¢ per contract on Kalshi and 1–1.75¢ on Polymarket, so a visible gap of 3–4¢ is typically the minimum before anything is left.
← every Kalshi↔Polymarket pair · resolution criteria · taker fees · match: AI-matched · 95%. Verify both markets' rules yourself; this is data, not advice.