Hiroshima Toyo Carp vs Tokyo Yakult Swallows Hiroshima Toyo Carp
Hiroshima Toyo Carp wins the NPB game. Listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket; recorded continuously since Sep 12, 2026. Live.
Price history, both venues (7 days)
Mid price of the YES side per venue, 5-minute buckets, from continuously recorded order books. Breaks mean the recorder was down or a book was empty.
Recent disagreement windows
| Opened | Closed | Length | Scans | Max net edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 8:07 AM ET | Sep 15, 8:07 AM ET | 0 min | 1 | 0.99% |
| Sep 15, 5:13 AM ET | Sep 15, 7:26 AM ET | 2.2 h | 110 | 12.42% |
| Sep 14, 11:06 AM ET | Sep 14, 6:20 PM ET | 7.2 h | 158 | 3.05% |
| Sep 14, 12:44 AM ET | Sep 14, 4:07 AM ET | 3.4 h | 91 | 9.65% |
Related markets on both venues
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Kalshi and Polymarket odds for "Hiroshima Toyo Carp vs Tokyo Yakult Swallows Hiroshima Toyo Carp"?
As of the latest recorded books, Kalshi's YES mid is 0.0¢ (bid —, ask —) and Polymarket's is 0.0¢ (bid 0.999, ask —) — a —¢ gap. Prices are recorded continuously; this page refreshes every few minutes.
Has this market been an arbitrage?
Yes — 4 separate windows where buying the cheaper side on each venue cost less than $1 after both fees, first on Sep 14, 2026 and most recently Sep 15, 2026. The largest net edge was 12.42% and windows averaged 193 minutes.
Do both contracts resolve the same way?
The pair was confirmed as the same question (AI-matched · 95%). That judgment covers the headline question; resolution rules can still differ in edge cases (sources, timing, ties). Read both venues' rules before treating a gap as risk-free.
What do the fees do to the gap?
Kalshi charges takers 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract; Polymarket charges its category rate on the same curve. Near 50¢ that is roughly 1.75¢ per contract on Kalshi and 1–1.75¢ on Polymarket, so a visible gap of 3–4¢ is typically the minimum before anything is left.
← every Kalshi↔Polymarket pair · resolution criteria · taker fees · match: AI-matched · 95%. Verify both markets' rules yourself; this is data, not advice.