Saitama Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes Orix Buffaloes
Orix Buffaloes win the NPB game originally scheduled for Sep 9, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. Listed on both Kalshi and Polymarket; recorded continuously since Sep 9, 2026. Live.
Price history, both venues (7 days)
Mid price of the YES side per venue, 5-minute buckets, from continuously recorded order books. Breaks mean the recorder was down or a book was empty.
Recent disagreement windows
| Opened | Closed | Length | Scans | Max net edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 7:06 AM ET | Sep 9, 8:10 AM ET | 65 min | 25 | 0.84% |
| Sep 9, 5:30 AM ET | Sep 9, 6:12 AM ET | 42 min | 9 | 2.28% |
Related markets on both venues
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Kalshi and Polymarket odds for "Saitama Seibu Lions vs Orix Buffaloes Orix Buffaloes"?
One venue's book has not been observed recently; the chart shows the last recorded prices.
Has this market been an arbitrage?
Yes — 2 separate windows where buying the cheaper side on each venue cost less than $1 after both fees, first on Sep 9, 2026 and most recently Sep 9, 2026. The largest net edge was 2.28% and windows averaged 53 minutes.
Do both contracts resolve the same way?
The pair was confirmed as the same question (AI-matched · 95%). That judgment covers the headline question; resolution rules can still differ in edge cases (sources, timing, ties). Read both venues' rules before treating a gap as risk-free.
What do the fees do to the gap?
Kalshi charges takers 7% × price × (1 − price) per contract; Polymarket charges its category rate on the same curve. Near 50¢ that is roughly 1.75¢ per contract on Kalshi and 1–1.75¢ on Polymarket, so a visible gap of 3–4¢ is typically the minimum before anything is left.
← every Kalshi↔Polymarket pair · resolution criteria · taker fees · match: AI-matched · 95%. Verify both markets' rules yourself; this is data, not advice.