Prediction market
An exchange where contracts on real-world events trade between 0 and $1 and pay $1 if the event happens — the price is the crowd's probability.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange; Polymarket is a large crypto-settled market. Both list binary contracts on elections, economics, sports and culture. Because they price independently and attract different traders, the same event often trades at different prices on each, which is the source of prediction-market arbitrage.
Measured on ArbMonster: Kalshi vs Polymarket, measured
Related terms: Arbitrage · Taker fee · Implied probability